For most horse racing punters, there isn’t much to think about.
I really don’t like using blanket statements as they don’t give me a warm, comforting feel. And if you know your horse racing or gambling at a high level I know that statement will irritate the life out of you.
If you are that said person: intellectual and brave when it comes to gambling, if not life, I wholeheartedly apologise.
For those who have a limited idea about gambling, I come with gifts.
Knowledge.
When you are considering a race and see there is an odds-on shot at the head of the betting, what do you think?
It may be one of many answers:
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I’ll bet on that because I’m a favourite’s man
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I will leave that race alone as I don’t fancy taking on the favourite
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I would rather bet each-way as it’s a safer option
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I never bet against an odds-on shot
As with most things in life, the answer may vary for all manner of reasons based on your approach, understanding, character traits and clearly on the race and horses.
However, if you are always betting scared against an odds-on favourite then my thoughts may help you appreciate the situation.
My brother and I have both considered this problem. So what’s the answer? I can only detail my philosophy from my niche of two-year-old horse racing but it does have some logic.
These are my words: You should always take on the odds-on favourite!
Clive Brittain, retired horse trainer, used to say: ‘Never be scared of one horse.’
He was right.
You may feel it’s a bad idea. But, in truth, it is logical to oppose the jolly. The reason being that most favourites are poor value. I say this from the point of view that if you bet on every favourite you would lose money. You may well be saying: ‘Well, that’s the case for every horse at every price.’
That’s true.
But not if your selection is based on good judgement and skill.
You need to have a reason to bet against the favourite because you should have a good reason for betting on any horse.
The trouble with never betting against the favourite is that you will, by its very nature, make the race null and void. This doesn’t seem a problem when the favourite wins because you will be saying: ‘I saved a few quid there.’
But what happens when the favourite disappoints, as they often do, and the horse you had your eye on wins at big odds?
You are left feeling irritated. You should feel that emotion too because you made a mistake. It’s motivation to learn. You have to take on the favourites because long term you will find more winners at bigger odds.
Sure, you may bet a few losers, when the favourite hoses up. But when you consider the issue of bet or no bet [because you are running scared of the favourite] there is no reason not to bet.
So many times I have seen the supposed ‘certainty’ lose and that third or fourth favourite returns a double-figure odds.
‘Oh my Lord, that 50/1 shot I had my eye on just won!’
‘I didn’t bet because I was scared of the odds-on favourite.’
If you don’t think this approach will work for you then why not do some paper trailing to see the maths. Don’t get me wrong, you won’t be doing yourself any favours if your selections aren’t based of sound judgement. However, if you fancy a horse at 33/1 and you don’t bet because that 1/2f looks unstoppable, you will live to regret it.
It has happened to me too many times.
To be a successful gambler it’s about finding answers to questions. That’s why after a day’s racing take a moment to review the results and see what happened and understand why it happened. It’s not about forgetting the losers and simply moving on to the next race.
Always bet responsibly and discipline is key to that endeavour.
Take on those short-priced favourites because it’s a better option than leaving those races alone.