Sizing John is set to defend his Cheltenham Gold Cup crown at the 2018 Festival on Friday, March 16 despite a far from perfect preparation for the blue riband event of National Hunt racing this time around. The question is can he win it back to back?
Owned by the late Alan and Ann Potts, Jessica Harrington’s charge came into last year’s renewal as a totally unexposed horse at the Gold Cup trip (an extended 3m 2f). Connections had tired of chasing subsequent Queen Mother Champion Chase flop Douvan home over 2m and duly stepped Sizing John up in distance with great success.
Leaving that upwardly mobile profile from last season behind him, Sizing John is no longer an under-the-radar horse. The plan for this campaign had been a tilt at The Jockey Club’s £1,000,000 bonus for the National Hunt Stayers Chase Triple Crown.
Bottomless ground at Haydock for the Betfair Chase in November forced a rethink, however, and Sizing John was rerouted to the John Durkan at Punchestown. Despite facing similar underfoot conditions on home soil, he confirmed the form of his previous two runs by comfortably beating Djakadam again.
Sizing John failed to follow-up up in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase (formerly the Lexus) when sent off odds-on and finishing a 32-length seventh to Road To Respect. Beaten favourites last time out have a notoriously poor Cheltenham Festival record.
As Djakadam was also below par and subsequent scoping found nothing wrong with either, the only explanation for Sizing John’s disappointment when previously in action is that the John Durkan took plenty out of him. He remains prominent in the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup betting odds, however, at shorter than his starting price last year with Paddy Power.
Some stats support punters who side with Sizing John; three of the last four Gold Cup winners have been Irish-trained. Three of the four victors before him, meanwhile, were eight-year-old horses – his current age.
“Cheltenham Gold Cup” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Carine06
Others make a case for betting against Sizing John. None of the last six Cheltenham Gold Cup heroes came into the race with just two runs in a season. Only a couple in the last 13 renewals were victorious with so few on-course outings in a campaign under their belt.
The mighty Best Mate, who won three consecutive Gold Cups in 2002-2004, is the last horse to have landed back-to-back renewals. Prior to that, L’Escargot won in 1970 and 1971, while the legendary Arkle dominated the race during the mid-1960s.
Just five horses have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup more than once since the Second World War. Kauto Star is the most recent, but his victories in 2007 and 2009 weren’t consecutive. That highlights the magnitude of the task facing Sizing John.
Harrington has given him a break to freshen up since Leopardstown and there are question marks hanging over a number of fellow Emerald Isle raiders, including stablemate Our Duke. Like Sizing John, the 2017 Irish Grand National winner has had a less than ideal prep for his first crack at the Gold Cup after disappointing on his two 3m outings this season.
Other contenders have fallen by the wayside, most notably Disko and the mudlark Betfair Chase winner Bristol De Mai. Neither will contest Cheltenham. Irish duo Coney Island and Killultagh Vic, meanwhile, both failed to complete their prep runs at Ascot and Leopardstown, respectively.
The latter’s stable companion Total Recall won the Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly the Hennessy), but Willie Mullins hasn’t trained a Cheltenham Gold Cup hero yet. That leaves King George winner and favourite Might Bite, plus the lightly campaigned Native River as dangers, alongside Road To Respect – who had the beating of Sizing John over Christmas.
Can he win consecutive Gold Cups? It’s possible more than probable for Sizing John and, if he were to win again at Cheltenham, would secure him a spot in horse racing history.