The Cheltenham Festival is the most compelling four days of National Hunt horse racing in the annual sporting calendar.
With 28 races – seven per day – there is plenty of action for punters to go at. Backing favourites in the betting should reward them in theory, but how has that worked out in practice over the last decade?
Ahead of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival, we’ve compiled some key stats relating to how the most fancied horses have got on from 2009.
Only one outright favourite has landed the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in the last decade with another joint market leader also going in. Both of those victors in the Festival opener were trained by Willie Mullins.
Five of the last six renewals of the Arkle Challenge Trophy, meanwhile, has gone the way of fancied horses. Those trends hint at the possibility of mixed fortunes for Mullins inmates Getabird (6/4 with bet365) and Footpad (evens).
Four Champion Hurdle favourites – again all hailing for the yard of master Irish handler Mullins – have come in since 2011. It’s Nicky Henderson-trained star Buveur D’Air who took last year’s race that is fancied this time at 2/5 over 2015 renewal winner Faugheen.
During the last nine years, seven starting price market leaders have won the OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, but this is one of those skewed statistics. This is because Mullins wonder mare Quevega landed six successive renewals from 2009 to 2014.
No favourite has landed the National Hunt Chase for novices since this gruelling 4m stamina test was moved from the second day of the Cheltenham Festival to the opening day. The last three renewals (2011-2013) before the switch were all won by the market principal.
The 3m RSA Chase – also for novices over fences – is regarded as a key trial for future Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders, yet the last three favourites to win it came in odd number years.
Not since 2014 has the main fancy landed either the 2m 5f Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle or the 2m Queen Mother Champion Chase. Does that give bet365’s respective red-hot horse racing betting favourites of the 2018 renewals Samcro (1/2) and Altior (4/6) cause for concern?
In their own unique ways, the 3m 6f Cross Country Chase and Champion Bumper are sometimes just as competitive as the Cheltenham Festival handicaps. This is borne out by the fact just one favourite apiece has won either since 2009.
Each of the last JLT Novices’ Chase winners were sent off favourite, while the Ryanair Chase is another middle-distance National Hunt race in which the market principals have a strong recent record including three of the last four.
Don’t read too much into recent Stayers’ Hurdle stats as Big Buck’s dominated this 3m contest, winning four in a row (2009-12) and was favourite for his last three triumphs.
The Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle is the newest Festival race after being introduced in 2016 and market leaders are two out of two in it so far. Laurina (evens) is seeking to give Mullins a hat-trick of winners in the extended 2m contest.
Triumph Hurdle favourites have a tremendous recent record with victories in each of the last three renewals of the juvenile contest for four-year-old horses. Henderson filly Apple’s Shakira (11/4) looks to enhance that further.
Only a couple of favourites in the last decade have delivered in the 3m Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. This year’s renewal looks wide open.
The market leader has gone in four times in the last nine renewals of the big one, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. That suggests yet another Henderson inmate, Might Bite, has a chance at 3/1.
Foxhunter Chase favourites are three from the last nine, but there is an extra element to consider with this race in that it is open to amateur riders only.
When it comes to those notoriously tricky Cheltenham Festival handicaps, well favourites have no fared well. No market leaders have won either the Coral Cup or County Hurdle in the last decade.
In fact, you have to go back to the 2014 Festival for the last time any favourite landed the spoils in any handicap race. Stats are only there to be disproved, but when it comes to Cheltenham they can certainly aid punters.