The form book is the most potent weapon in the horse racing punter’s arsenal. However, just like any other weapon, you probably need some practice before you can wield it effectively. In this article, we hope to outline steps you can take to make your own form reading simple, effective and profitable.
Find yourself a niche or, in other words, concentrate on a particular type, or types, of race, that interest you. You might like to choose three-year-old handicaps on the Flat, or novice hurdles under National Hunt rules but, whatever your choice, you’ll give yourself an advantage by doing so. Firstly, you’ll become familiar with individual performers – in terms of their ability, preferences for distance, going, etc. – in your chosen niche. Secondly, you’ll be become familiar with the characteristics of horses that typically do well in your chosen niche. Finally, you’ll instill discipline on your betting activity, so you won’t be tempted to bet on each and every race, just for ‘interest’ purposes.
It stands to reason that if you’re going to read form effectively the form must actually exist in the first place. Maiden races, for example, often feature large fields of lightly raced, or unraced, horses whose form is difficult, or impossible, to assess. Avoid any race where form reading is tantamount to guesswork and concentrate instead on races in which most, or all, of the runners have fully exposed form.
Similarly, avoid races in which most, or all, the runners are making their seasonal debut. Of course, many horses do win first time out but, unless you’re privy to information that’s not in the public domain, backing any horse that hasn’t run within the last six weeks requires a leap of faith on your part.
Other types of race to avoid are claiming races, selling races and low class condition stakes and handicap races. These types of race invariably feature horses that are poor, regressive and/or in the twilight of their careers. In any case, the form is often so poor and unreliable that it’s not worth the time and effort required to read it in the first place.
Start with just one, two or three races a day, preferably at the same meeting. In terms of number of runners, you’ll inevitably need to come to some kind of compromise between the number of runners and the odds on offer but, as a rule of thumb, races with 6-14 runners typically offer value for money. A 30-runner sprint handicap may be a spectacle, but once you factor in the vagaries of missing the break, the effect of the draw and luck in running it’s easy to see why bookmakers offer apparently generous odds about this type of race.
Concentrate on the first three in the betting. Regardless of any other factors, roughly two-thirds of horse races run in Britain are won by one of the first three in the betting, so it makes sense to focus on this profitable area.
The vast majority of horse races are won by horses at, or approaching, their peak, racing within their normal sphere against limited opposition and attempting little, or no, more than they’ve achieved in the past.
For each of the first three in the betting, eliminate any that hasn’t run within the last six weeks. Thereafter, look for any disparity in class, distance, going and weight compared with last time out. Be wary of any horse stepping up in class, particularly if the step up in class is accompanied by a rise of 14lb, or more, in the weights. Similarly, be wary of any horse that is unproven over the advertised distance or, at least, a furlong longer or shorter than the advertised distance and/or the prevailing going or, at least, one ‘degree’ faster or slower than the prevailing going.
You should find that, as you read through the form, you naturally start to form opinions about the relative chances of each horse you look at. However, if you can’t form a firm opinion, remember that you’re not duty bound to make a selection, even if you’ve read the form.
As you become more adept at reading form, don’t be afraid to back your own opinion. As late American actor Will Rogers once said, “A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries” so, if you believe that the chance of a certain horse has been underestimated, or overestimated, by the bookmakers, trust your own judgement.
Never back each-way. Not only are the standard place terms offered by bookmakers uneconomical, mathematically, but each-way betting involves doubling your outlay, or halving your stake and can lead to indecisive selection. The apparent ‘safety net’ provided by each-way betting is largely psychological and, while it may improve your strike rate, it probably won’t improve your profitability in the long run.
Never bet odds-on. As veteran trainer Barry Hills once said, “If you could buy money they would sell it in a shop down the road”. Always add one point to the odds you’re willing to accept about a selection to account for the unexpected. In other words, once you’ve assessed a race and made a selection look for minimum odds of even money, regardless of the quality of the opposition.
Profitable form reading obviously requires some time and effort initially, but you’ll soon discover that the more form you read the faster, simpler and more effective the process becomes. Rather than diving in and risking your hard-earned cash from the word ‘Go’, proof your selections on paper only for a period of weeks, or months, until you’re confident that you can generate a profit when you start betting ‘for real’. However proficient you become, the number of variables affecting the outcome of any horse race dictate that you cannot ever be 100% accurate in reading form. Nevertheless, if you follow the steps outlined above, you’ll be well on your way to becoming a profitable punter.
